TORNADO SAFETY

Why does it seem like tornadoes avoid downtowns of major cities? Simply, downtowns cover such tiny land areas relative to the entire nation. The chance of any particular tornado hitting a major downtown is quite low - not for any meteorological reason, but simply because downtowns are small targets. Even when tornadoes hit metro areas, their odds of hitting downtown are small out of space considerations alone. For example, downtown Dallas (inside the freeway loop) covers roughly three square miles, Dallas County, about 900 square miles. For a brief tornado in Dallas County, its odds of hitting downtown are only about 1 in 300. Still, downtown tornadoes have happened, including at least four hits on St. Louis alone. The idea of large buildings destroying or preventing a tornado is pure myth; when compared to the total circulation of a big tornado from ground through thunderhead the largest skyscrapers pale in size and volume

What would happen if a large, violent tornado hit a major city today? This has happened on several occasions, including in parts of Oklahoma City on May 3, 1999. Because of excellent, timely watches and warnings and intense media coverage of the Oklahoma tornado long before it hit, only 36 people were killed. The damage toll exceeded $1 billion. Still, it did not strike downtown, and passed over many miles of undeveloped land. Moving the same path north or south in the same area may have led too much greater death and damage tolls. The threat exists for a far worse disaster! Placing the same tornado outbreak in the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex, especially during rush hour gridlock (with up to 62,000 vehicles stuck in the path), the damage could triple what was done in Oklahoma. There could be staggering death tolls in the hundreds or thousands, and overwhelmed emergency services.

What about tornado safety in sports stadiums or outdoors festivals? This is an excellent question and a very, very disturbing one to many meteorologists. Tornadoes have passed close to such gatherings on a few occasions, including a horse race in Omaha on 6 May 1975 and a crowded dog track in West Memphis AR on 14 December 1987. A supercell without a tornado hit a riverside festival in Ft. Worth in 1995, catching over 10,000 people outdoors and bashing many of them with hail bigger than baseballs. Just in the last few years, tornadoes have hit the football stadium for the NFL Tennessee Titans, and the basketball arena for the NBA Utah Jazz. Fortunately, they were both nearly empty of people at the time. There is the potential for massive death tolls if a stadium or fairground is hit by a tornado during a concert, festival or sporting event - even with a warning in effect. Fans may never know about the warning; and even if they do, mass-panic could ensue and result in casualties even if the tornado doesn't hit. Stadium and festival managers should work with local emergency management officials to develop a plan for tornado emergencies - both for crowd safety during the watch and warning stages, and (similar to a terrorism plan) for dealing with mass casualties after the tornado.